Crime analyst and AH Datalytics co-founder Jeff Asher reported last week that through the end of June, the murder rate is down roughly 11% in 100 major American cities. Though it remains 12% higher than pre-pandemic levels, it is still cause for celebration that the tide may be turning.
If the trend holds through the end of the year, Asher wrote that “the decline in big cities would portend to a 7-10% decline nationally in 2023.”
For over three years, the nation reeled under an explosion in violent crime, particularly in major cities that seemed powerless to stop the spike in bloodshed. This coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020.
The wave of violence harkened back to the surge in criminality in the 1990s that also saw murders surge virtually unchecked.
Some of the drop in murders even reached smaller cities with stubbornly high numbers of victims, according to Asher. “New Orleans likely had the nation’s highest murder rate for any city over 250,000 [in population] in 2022, while Jackson, MS likely had the nation’s highest murder rate for any city over 100,000.”
The researcher noted that murders were still prevalent in both, but the rate did fall in the first half of the year.
It is also significant to consider the source, as Asher’s data is widely acknowledged as both accurate and timely. Previously, those seeking numbers on violence nationwide turned to the FBI, but the agency changed its method of data collection. Not only is it slower than Asher’s procedures, but it tallies results from far fewer police agencies.
